Map the market before looking for a trade.
The process starts with structure, not with an automatic ORB breakout. Before New York, map the overnight references that can explain where price is positioned and where liquidity may sit.
Build the 8:00–8:15 ET opening range.
The current raw process uses the 8:00–8:15 ET high, low, and midpoint as a local reference. The range is information — not automatic permission to buy a break or sell a breakdown.
- Record ORB high and low.
- Calculate the midpoint.
- Observe initial participation and direction.
- Keep the ORB inside the larger Asia/London/previous-day map.
Read what price reveals between 8:15 and 9:30.
Once the range is formed, the process watches how price behaves before the New York cash open. A first break, failure, consolidation, or directional move can change the thesis before an entry is considered.
Prefer retest and acceptance over blind breakout.
The raw process repeatedly distinguishes a valid retest from a complete failure of structure. The preference is to see price violate an important level, return toward it, then show acceptance and continuation rather than chasing the initial move.
What a constructive retest is trying to show
- Price moved beyond a reference level.
- The pullback revisits that location without fully destroying the structure.
- Price holds/reclaims and continuation reasserts.
- The level behaves like an acceptance test, not simply a one-candle breakout.
What should make the setup suspect
- Price fully reverses through the level.
- The breakout lacks participation and immediately collapses.
- Price closes back into the range and fails to reclaim.
- The pullback invalidates the structure the trade thesis depended on.
Build a case instead of relying on one confirmation.
At an area of interest, the discretionary process stacks context. These modules are currently useful descriptors and implementation candidates; they should not be marketed as individually proven filters without isolated testing.
Ask where price is trying to go.
The framework does not treat the ORB as the whole map. ORB levels can be waypoints inside a larger move toward overnight or previous-day liquidity.
The working decision sequence.
- Establish structure: map Asia, London, previous day, gaps, and relative location.
- Build the 8:00–8:15 ORB: high, low, midpoint, initial participation.
- Observe 8:15–9:30: acceptance, failed break, consolidation, liquidity travel.
- Evaluate 9:30: opening aggression, volume, continuation versus reversal.
- Wait for location/retest: do not chase a move simply because the range broke.
- Stack confluence: VWAP, trend context, imbalance, volume, next liquidity target.
- Enter or pass: weak/contradictory context is permission to do nothing.
- Manage to structure: invalidation and targets should relate to the thesis, not arbitrary noise.
What can be measured vs. what still needs judgment.
Objective / codable candidates
- Session highs/lows and previous-day levels.
- ORB high, low, midpoint, range size, and clock.
- Price above/below a reference.
- VWAP / EMA relationship.
- Algorithmic FVG definitions.
- Volume relative to an average or threshold.
- Distance to mapped liquidity targets.
- Entry time, price, direction, exit, duration, and target hit.
Currently discretionary / definition-sensitive
- Acceptance versus rejection nuance.
- Healthy versus weak consolidation.
- Whether a move has conviction.
- Which liquidity target is most likely.
- When conflicting confluences should be overridden.
- Context around volatility, broader markets, and news.
- Scaling, stop movement, and discretionary trade management.
Execution and risk stay downstream of the thesis.
The raw process describes structure-aware invalidation, scaling as confidence develops, breakeven after progress, and holding toward liquidity targets. Those concepts are useful documentation, but position sizing, stop placement, partial exits, and trailing logic must be versioned separately because historical code and discretionary practice have not always used the same implementation.